Why the most recent poll is bad news for Huckabee
Political blogs, Washington talk shows and Des Moines coffee shops were abuzz this weekend with the news that a new Rasmussen poll has Mike Huckabee with the lead in Iowa. Most of the "Meet the Press" round table on Sunday was devoted to why the Arkansas Governor is resonating with the Iowa Republican base.
I have been bullish on Mike Huckabee for a long time; I have been a fan ever since I first saw him on the Colbert Report (I know, I know, how Millennial) talking about his diet book and the earliest stages of his candidacy. I want to add a few reasons why I think he is resonating, what I think this means for his campaign and what his next moves could and should be.
The most common explanation for Huckabee's success is that he resonates with Iowa Republican base of evangelical Christian voters because of his conservative credentials. He is a Baptist minister, staunchly pro life and far more creationist than I can deal with. Meanwhile, candidates like Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani claim "evolving" positions on a wide array of social issues--something which would not reassure me if I were an Iowa caucusgoer raising my child on a steady diet of Veggie Tales. The counterpart to this argument is that his brand of conservatism doesn't play with New Hampshire Primary voters and that he won't do well there. I disagree, arguing that his appeal extends beyond Christian evangelicals.
My father has argued to me that elections are defined by "ins" or "outs." 2006 was an "out" year; 2008 will remain an "out" year. Huckabee is the only candidate in the Republican party whose "out" credentials seem to ring true. He is a Governor rather than part of the Washington establishment, He hasn't had a hand in the Iraq War, and he is building a come-from-behind political narrative; All of these facts contribute to an outsider narrative. And New Hampshire Primary voters love outsiders. Mitt Romney shares a lot of these traits, but he is too rich, successful and good-looking for me to credibly believe that he is an "out" candidate. He spent his entire life at the cool kids' table.
Another reason for Huckabee's success, the one that I find most compelling, is that Huckabee is a generally nice, likeable, and appealing guy. Even the most jaded political observer will admit the importance of being likable. As voters tune in more and more, the appeal of the candidate who seems most human gets stronger. That especially comes through in his most recent commercial (most of you have seen it, but linking to it gave me an excuse to watch it again). In trying to find Youtube clips of Huckabee saying crazy conservative things, I found dozens of him explaining views I disagree with 100% in a persuasive and thoughtful way. That is powerful.
So the question becomes what should Huckabee do next. One pundit I saw argued that he should try to parlay this newfound publicity into money. Target the Bush/Cheney Pioneers who have not yet backed a candidate so that he can get the money to build a New Hampshire campaign. That is a good advice, so is telling the Miami Dolphins that their next move should be to win a few games. It demonstrates a fundamental lack of understanding of how campaigns work. EVERY campaign is trying to raise money. EVERY campaign has a large fund raising staff targeting the Bush/Cheney Pioneers (who are all giving to Democrats anyway). And EVERY surge in the polls is reflected in a increase a campaign donations. Raising money is not a strategy.
So what should his strategy be? He should downplay this news. Every single member of the Huckabee campaign from the Governor down to to the intern in charge of the Albion, Iowa office should be saying that the poll is certainly good news but we are focused on getting the Governor's message out and talking to the voters about taxes, the war in Iraq, pickup truck subsidies, freedom, and whatever else they talk about in Republican primaries. If a reporter asks about the poll, make an aw-shucks joke about how much different the questions were back when you were at 11% in the polls.
Momentum is one of the most powerful things in politics. But the flipside of momentum is high expectations. If I were working for Governor Huckabee I would be nervous. Soon there will be nowhere to go but down and nothing to do but slow down. Additionally, this is only one poll, and even the poll says that it is too close to call due to the difficulty of polling among potential Iowa caucus goers and the uncertainly or polling general. The state is still a statistical dead heat and Mitt Romney still has the money to fill Iowa with so many staffers that he will end up a bigger employer in Iowa than corn. Additionally, Romney has been on the air longer and has a more established campaign infrastructure. Money and manpower have a big effect in caucuses. I still like Romney's chances.
Imagine headlines like "Romney comes out on top, Huckabee falls short" trailing Huckabee to New Hampshire--where he is still far behind in the polls. There, he places 3rd or 4th. All of a sudden, "Is the Huckabee campaign losing steam?" trails him to South Carolina where he is forced to compete against Romney, who has already won two caucuses, and Fred Thompson, who is surprisingly strong there (not really surprising, he is white, has a drawl, and is on the teevee).
So Governor Huckabee needs manage the expectations and hope that the momentum lasts through the Holidays. A first place finish in Iowa followed by a strong 2nd in New Hampshire could set him up as a Juggernaut in South Carolina and make him the second man from Hope to wear the title "Comeback Kid."
I have been bullish on Mike Huckabee for a long time; I have been a fan ever since I first saw him on the Colbert Report (I know, I know, how Millennial) talking about his diet book and the earliest stages of his candidacy. I want to add a few reasons why I think he is resonating, what I think this means for his campaign and what his next moves could and should be.
The most common explanation for Huckabee's success is that he resonates with Iowa Republican base of evangelical Christian voters because of his conservative credentials. He is a Baptist minister, staunchly pro life and far more creationist than I can deal with. Meanwhile, candidates like Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani claim "evolving" positions on a wide array of social issues--something which would not reassure me if I were an Iowa caucusgoer raising my child on a steady diet of Veggie Tales. The counterpart to this argument is that his brand of conservatism doesn't play with New Hampshire Primary voters and that he won't do well there. I disagree, arguing that his appeal extends beyond Christian evangelicals.
My father has argued to me that elections are defined by "ins" or "outs." 2006 was an "out" year; 2008 will remain an "out" year. Huckabee is the only candidate in the Republican party whose "out" credentials seem to ring true. He is a Governor rather than part of the Washington establishment, He hasn't had a hand in the Iraq War, and he is building a come-from-behind political narrative; All of these facts contribute to an outsider narrative. And New Hampshire Primary voters love outsiders. Mitt Romney shares a lot of these traits, but he is too rich, successful and good-looking for me to credibly believe that he is an "out" candidate. He spent his entire life at the cool kids' table.
Another reason for Huckabee's success, the one that I find most compelling, is that Huckabee is a generally nice, likeable, and appealing guy. Even the most jaded political observer will admit the importance of being likable. As voters tune in more and more, the appeal of the candidate who seems most human gets stronger. That especially comes through in his most recent commercial (most of you have seen it, but linking to it gave me an excuse to watch it again). In trying to find Youtube clips of Huckabee saying crazy conservative things, I found dozens of him explaining views I disagree with 100% in a persuasive and thoughtful way. That is powerful.
So the question becomes what should Huckabee do next. One pundit I saw argued that he should try to parlay this newfound publicity into money. Target the Bush/Cheney Pioneers who have not yet backed a candidate so that he can get the money to build a New Hampshire campaign. That is a good advice, so is telling the Miami Dolphins that their next move should be to win a few games. It demonstrates a fundamental lack of understanding of how campaigns work. EVERY campaign is trying to raise money. EVERY campaign has a large fund raising staff targeting the Bush/Cheney Pioneers (who are all giving to Democrats anyway). And EVERY surge in the polls is reflected in a increase a campaign donations. Raising money is not a strategy.
So what should his strategy be? He should downplay this news. Every single member of the Huckabee campaign from the Governor down to to the intern in charge of the Albion, Iowa office should be saying that the poll is certainly good news but we are focused on getting the Governor's message out and talking to the voters about taxes, the war in Iraq, pickup truck subsidies, freedom, and whatever else they talk about in Republican primaries. If a reporter asks about the poll, make an aw-shucks joke about how much different the questions were back when you were at 11% in the polls.
Momentum is one of the most powerful things in politics. But the flipside of momentum is high expectations. If I were working for Governor Huckabee I would be nervous. Soon there will be nowhere to go but down and nothing to do but slow down. Additionally, this is only one poll, and even the poll says that it is too close to call due to the difficulty of polling among potential Iowa caucus goers and the uncertainly or polling general. The state is still a statistical dead heat and Mitt Romney still has the money to fill Iowa with so many staffers that he will end up a bigger employer in Iowa than corn. Additionally, Romney has been on the air longer and has a more established campaign infrastructure. Money and manpower have a big effect in caucuses. I still like Romney's chances.
Imagine headlines like "Romney comes out on top, Huckabee falls short" trailing Huckabee to New Hampshire--where he is still far behind in the polls. There, he places 3rd or 4th. All of a sudden, "Is the Huckabee campaign losing steam?" trails him to South Carolina where he is forced to compete against Romney, who has already won two caucuses, and Fred Thompson, who is surprisingly strong there (not really surprising, he is white, has a drawl, and is on the teevee).
So Governor Huckabee needs manage the expectations and hope that the momentum lasts through the Holidays. A first place finish in Iowa followed by a strong 2nd in New Hampshire could set him up as a Juggernaut in South Carolina and make him the second man from Hope to wear the title "Comeback Kid."
Labels: 2008, Huckabee, President, Republicans
posted by jgee at
10:49 AM
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